Forecasting Poverty & Inequality in Mauritania to 2030

Policy makers need a view of poverty trends that goes beyond the latest household survey round. This project combines historical survey data from 1996 onward with interpolation techniques to produce a continuous forecast of four key poverty indicators through 2030.

The biggest methodological challenge was reconciling survey rounds collected under different sampling frames and questionnaire designs, which required careful harmonization before any interpolation could be trusted.

The resulting projections are meant as a planning input, not a substitute for future survey rounds — but they give policy teams an early signal of where inequality is trending between census years.